Description: Israel and Iran continued exchanging missile attacks over the last day, with Israel targeting Isfahan, Najafabad and Kermanshah, also hitting a petrochemical plant in Mahshahr, while Iran targeted the industrial port in Haifa. After the exchange, Israel and Iran jointly ceased the attacks but promised retaliatory measures in case either side continues. President Trump has been criticizing both Iran and Israel for the most recent escalation, as Israel continued to ignore US foreign policy priorities in the region and position its military objectives ahead of the proposed peace agreement. Trump also heavily criticized Iran for attacking Israel unprovoked. Yemen’s Houthis have purportedly also launched missile strikes on Israel’s Eilat area, with all missiles ending intercepted by the Israeli defense forces. The Houthis additionally announced that the Bab El Mandeb Strait would be closed for Israeli ships indefinitely or until they cease hostilities with Iran.
Impact: The most recent flare up of attacks would most likely shift the proverbial diplomatic goal posts once again, further complicating the ceasefire agreement and backtracking any progress achieved through the mediated peace talks. Iran and the US are poised to impose further conditions for engaging diplomatically as the likeliest result of the eroding mutual mistrust that continues to grow between the two countries. Israel’s continuation of the campaign against Hezbollah would most likely further compromise any diplomatic traction and would likely cause a further political backsliding between Trump and Netanyahu. Iran’s direction of the Houthis to threaten the Bab El Mandeb blockade was likely used as a bargaining chip to cease the immediate hostilities, while a permanent blockade would catastrophically reverberate in the maritime commercial and energy shipping industries. The degree of defiance on both sides demonstrates that mediators would like face an uphill battle in bringing Iran and the US back to the negotiating table, while backchannel talks are likely to continue. Further skirmishes are to be expected which would likely be caused by Israel’s continued campaign in Lebanon and Israel’s failure to adhere to its diplomatic principles as an US ally in the region.