Description: Iraqi and Syrian government officials have begun negotiations to restart an oil pipeline that runs from the Iraqi Kirkuk fields to Syria’s Mediterranean port of Baniyas. According to the CEO of the state – owned Syrian Petroleum Company, the project would take approximately three years to develop and would also include foreign investors, primarily the US. The project would be comprised of two separate stages where two pipelines would be developed with an estimate 1.5 million barrels per day and 2 million barrels per day respectively. The move would enable Iraq to open much needed export routes towards Europe and the wider Mediterranean and would revive Syria’s economic transition and reformation in its post – Assad era.
Impact: Syria and Iraq are likely to expand further mutual partnerships in terms of economic development, security cooperation and energy resistance in the short to mid – term period. Both countries are currently faced with similar challenges such as the disarmament of non – state armed actors, resuscitating the economies and bringing about ethnic cohesion. These challenges are likely to persist in the long – term, considering the degraded state capacities in Syria and Iraq which would likely endanger projects such as the announced oil pipeline to Baniyas. Iranian – backed groups operating in Iraq and Syria are likely to strongly oppose to both countries’ energy and security independence and are likely to threatened armed escalations. Syria and Iraq are likely going to further aim towards completely decoupling from ties with Iran which could in turn lead towards infighting in the severely fractured state systems in both countries.