Description: Iranian officials have stated that a deal regarding maritime navigation in the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman was in its final stages. US President Trump continued to insist that Iran negotiated with the US within the last two days, however, Iranian spokespeople have rejected any possibility for direct negotiations. According to the proposed agreement between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz traffic would be navigated throughout Iranian territorial waters on arrival, while ships would exit through the Omani side. Fees and other expenses have also reportedly been discussed, however, the timeline of their imposition is currently unknown. Iran, responding to Trump’s threats of renewed military offensive, stated that in case the US attacked Iranian civilian infrastructure, all the critical infrastructure in the Gulf states would be impacted and the energy and economic crisis would spiral. The Houthis have also stated that a Saudi Arabian ship near the Yanbu port was struck by Houthi missiles. Other targets were also struck northward in the Suez Canal and southward in the Gulf of Aden.
Impact: Iran’s pursuit of an independent deal on the Strait of Hormuz with Oman is likely a strategy to draw a firm line in the sand in all and any future negotiations with the US regarding navigation in the Strait. Oman’s involvement is unlikely to modify the Iranian position on the Strait which indicates that the US would either have to respond militarily to the agreement or attach provisions from the previous MoU to the Iran – Oman framework. Any potential escalation from the US would highly likely be met by a wide – ranging expansion of the war, especially in Yemen, Lebanon and Iraq where the bulk of Iran’s proxy forces operate. Iran is highly likely going to maintain its insistence to privileges over maritime navigation in the Strait which is likely to be opposed by the US in the long – term, especially in case fees are included. The likeliest short – term scenario is that limited strikes on both sides would continue, since both countries are likely aiming at preventing the expansion of the war regionally, until backchannel talks or indirect mediative efforts by Qatar and other Arab states yield consensus results regarding diplomatic reengagement between the US and Iran.