Description: Israel has stated that two IDF soldiers were killed by an explosion while clearing a residential building in southern Lebanon after which the Israeli military responded with airstrikes on Tibnin that killed one Lebanese citizen and wounded 12 others. Israeli and Lebanese diplomatic officials were meeting in Rome on the second day of the seventh round of negotiations. Media reports indicated that Israel and Lebanon despite the latest flare – up remained determined in their efforts to establish a stable understanding to enforce the pilot zone project. Lebanon asked the next pilot territories to be in Khiam or Bin Jbeil, former known Hezbollah strongholds in the south. Israel suggested the next pilot zone to be Ali Taher Hill, since according to IDF officials, the village had a hidden Hezbollah command center and underground weapons cache. Lebanese officials renounced the Israeli proposal stating that Taher Hill was not occupied by Israeli soldiers so there were no IDF troops to be replaced by the LAF. Hezbollah in its most recent statements pledged to fully withdraw from Lebanon’s south, even northward of the Litani river, however, it would remain active in Lebanon’s north and the Beirut suburbs.
Impact: Israel’s continued attacks on civilian infrastructure in southern Lebanon, along its proposals for the LAF to insert into zones not occupied by Israeli troops likely indicates that Israel considers the trilateral framework a pathway for permanent occupation of southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. Lebanon is highly likely to agree to further concessions imposed by the US and Israel in order to push the pilot zone project forward, however, it would unlikely achieve any concrete or practical goals both politically and operationally. Hezbollah’s stance of not militarily inflaming the current ceasefire is likely due to the group’s depleted capabilities and it constant pivot towards avoiding disarmament and dismantlement. Israel is unlikely to relaunch a ground offensive in Lebanon, however, it would likely maintain a constant presence in the south of the country in the short to mid – term period. Lebanon is unlikely to move towards disarming Hezbollah in the short – term, while Hezbollah would likely condition its disarmament for legitimate political integration into the Lebanese system.