Description: The United Arab Emirates have decided to abandon the oil producing cartel known as OPEC and its sister organization OPEC+ citing global instability and the need to produce more oil in times of crisis. UAE was one of the largest members of OPEC and OPEC+ and one of the founding countries to join the organization that controls the global output of oil. The Emirates decided to outline their newest strategy at the latest GCC meeting potentially risking the stability of the Gulf alliance and decreasing Saudi Arabia’s clout as OPEC’s de – facto leader. UAE came under the heaviest bombardment in the Iranian war as most of its oil producing and transporting infrastructure was either damaged or destroyed while the double blockade on the Strait of Hormuz impedes the country’s ability to export oil.
Impact: UAE’s regional rivalry with Saudi Arabia reflected through geopolitical competition using economic coercion, proxy conflicts in Sudan and Yemen and economic and technological competition for foreign direct investments are the likeliest reasons for the country’s abandonment of the oil cartel. With the move, the Emirates are choosing to pursue an independent energy strategy going forward which would likely increase their oil exports and result in the eventual increase of regional and global soft power influence. Constraints in pursuing this strategy still remain, such as the blockade of Hormuz, the damaged or destroyed infrastructure and the economic contraction the Emirates experienced due to the Iran war in terms of tourism and financial services as the two major economic branches outside of oil in the country. UAE’s exit from OPEC likely reflects a global transition towards renewable sources and demonstrates a trend of geopolitical partition towards minilateralism or multilateralism where countries would most likely independently pursue strategic goals reflecting their national strategic priorities.