Description: Terrorists linked to the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) attacked a village in Adamawa State in northeastern Nigeria killing more than 30 civilians. The attack arrives in a difficult period for the country which is facing a trilateral security crisis and lacks the capabilities to counter the threats. Adamawa State governor, Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri stated that Nigeria would increase military and security presence in the region and continue to support regional militia and vigilante groups to counteract the terrorist threat from the Islamic State. In a previous attack, unidentified terrorists kidnapped more than 23 children from a school compound, 15 of whom were rescued by Nigerian security forces.
Impact: Nigeria’s inability to react preemptively to threats likely demonstrates the dire state of the country’s military and security apparatus as it struggles to cover larger parts of its territory enabling terrorist groups to enhance attacks, kidnappings and establish control. The country is in desperate need of foreign partners as the support from the US in countering terrorist groups has proven ineffective and insufficient. Terrorist groups such as Boko Haram and ISWAP would most likely intensify their activities as general elections are nearing, further testing the government’s resolve to resist national security threats and reestablish control. Civilian casualties would rise and instability is likely to persist as Nigeria’s military, government and security forces would continue to scramble in countering the security threats.