Description: Mali’s military junta leader, Assimi Goita issued a public statement encouraging the Malian civil population to remain united and undeterred from the threat of terrorists and separatists. Goita later met with the Russian ambassador to Mali, Igor Gromyko and a delegation of Russian military personnel. The Russian Ministry of Defense after the meeting issued a statement claiming that JNIM and FLA were merely regrouping and mobilizing as the threat was far from over. JNIM’s spokesperson, Bina Diarra, published a statement claiming that JNIM and the FLA are planning a sustained siege on the capital Bamako which was already overburdened by the fuel blockade imposed by JNIM late last year. Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) fighters were reported in the northeastern town of Menaka as the fighters were reported to have freely roamed the city while the military repositioned to a nearby outpost.
Impact: JNIM and the FLA managed to severely strain the capabilities of the Africa Corps and the Malian military and are likely to maintain control over key towns for a sustained period of time while mobilizing to launch renewed offensive or further blockades. Bamako as their next target would likely come under severe pressure as fuel shortages could cripple operations and force the civilian population to flee which would likely position JNIM and the FLA in a favorable situation to capture the capital. ISSP’s presence in the northeast further extends the complex security landscape as the group’s movements indicate they are likely positioning to exploit the fighting between JNIM, the FLA and the Malian military supported by Russian mercenaries to capture their own territorial gains. Goita’s public statements are unlikely to reassure the civilian population that the current situation is under control, especially after fighters from Africa Corps withdrew from Kidal and a large portion of their military equipment ended up under JNIM’s or FLA’s possession. Large – scale instability is likely to persist in the short to mid – term depending on the intensity of the conflict, foreign financial and military backing of the groups and the political shifts within Mali’s ruling military junta.