Description: Director – General of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, while speaking to media outlets in Seoul, warned that North Korea has rapidly and drastically started expanding its nuclear arsenal. Grossi stated that, according to recent assessments, uranium enrichment capabilities in North Korea’s main nuclear development plant in Yongbyon have substantially increased and Pyongyang could be able to produce several dozen warheads within a year. North Korea’s nuclear arsenal since its disclosure in 2007 has been estimated at approximately 50 warheads. Grossi also stated that no presence of Russian scientists or materials were identified, since Russia and North Korea signed a no limit strategic partnership last year which oversaw the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Kursk in exchange for Russian nuclear technology and expertise.
Impact: Recent ballistic missiles tests and the rapid increase in uranium enrichment likely indicate that Pyongyang has decisively renounced the olive branch from Seoul. North Korea’s enhancement in nuclear deterrence arrive as the country’s natural response to global events such as the war in Iran, Ukraine and the general crisis in the Middle East. The rearmament likely increases the chances for vertical nuclear proliferation in the country while also endangering the security status quo in the Pacific. Offensive actions in context of military interventions near the DMZ with South Korea or escalation of regional tensions are not expected as Pyongyang has exploited the regular ballistic missiles tests and its increasing level of nuclear enrichment as a public deterrent from any aggression or forms of international pressure.