Description: Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLM – IO) has advanced and captured the town of Akobo from government forces, located in the recently contested Jonglei State. The capture of Akobo arrives only a week after the South Sudanese military ordered mass evacuations of civilians and humanitarian aid personnel under the pretext of launching an offensive against the rebel forces. UN’s mission in South Sudan rejected the government’s calls and remained in the city, however, after the SPLM – IO’s advancements, the troops withdrew along with the civilians away from the town bordering Ethiopia. The UN also warned of devastating humanitarian conditions in Jonglei State after recent military operations on both sides and called for deescalation.
Impact: The armed skirmishes between government troops and the SPLM – IO are so far sporadic, inconsistent and spread across large timeframes, which highly likely indicates low – scale insurgency in the mid to long – term period. SPLM – IO wages an asymmetric insurgency within South Sudan which the government forces find difficult to operationally counteract. The conflict for the time being does not show signs of combustion towards a large – scale civil war, however, protracted armed skirmishes could plunge larger states within South Sudan in crisis, causing devastating humanitarian and refugee crises affecting neighboring countries and spurring further domestic tensions in neighboring Ethiopia and Sudan, where both SPLM – IO and South Sudan’s government, have opposing supporters.