Description: Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), has conducted several attacks which resulted in the deaths of at least 38 civilians. Local militia leaders, supporting the military, alerted government forces that more than 30 loggers were killed with additional 18 still missing following ISWAP’s attacks on the Mafa village in northeastern Nigeria. Previously ISWAP terrorists attacked and raided the village of Kautikeri killing at least 11 people and setting fire to dozens of houses. Tribesmen and herdsmen violence also escalated in Kaduna state as well as the Mbalom village in Benue State, where more than a dozen civilians were killed. The military has stated that they foiled a planned terrorist attack on a church in Zamfara State where more than 65 bandits were killed. The security forces also noted that a concerning trend started to emerge, where the armed tribesmen and herdsmen started cooperating with rival terrorist organizations in the country such as ISWAP or Boko Haram.
Impact: The larger terrorist organizations in Nigeria, such as ISWAP and Boko Haram, have started exerting influence on smaller armed militias, exploiting them as force multipliers on their future attacks and operations. Nigeria, which is faced with a triple security threat, between armed insurgents, terrorist organizations and the herdsmen and tribesmen violence, is having difficulties in supplanting these groups as its security forces are stretched out, underequipped and understaffed. The involvement from the US at the begging of this year has had limited effects with terrorist groups managing to mobilize and adapt to the evolving warfare landscape fairly quickly. Due to the war in Iran, Nigerian security forces are left to their own devices, which indicates a likely scenario, where terrorist attacks, kidnappings and wide – scale extortion and violence would severely escalate in the short to mid – term period.