Description: The Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claimed they have captured the city of Babanusa, a key transportation and logistics junction in the West Kordofan province. The announcement was contested by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) which stated that the RSF has intensively shelled the city and launched incursive ground operations, however, the control over the city still pertained to the SAF. The announcement arrives after the RSF’s leader announced on 25 Nov that the paramilitary forces would enter a three – month unilateral humanitarian ceasefire in order to enable diplomatic peace efforts proposed by the US, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt to take shape. RSF further claimed that the SAF launched a surprise attack in Babanusa, prompting RSF forces to intervene and engage in heavy clashes.
Impact: RSF’s continuation of the offensive towards the Kordofan state provinces indicates that despite the unilateral ceasefire the conflict would further intensify, especially around the central parts of the country as both warring sides are aiming to establish control over key regions. Babanusa is one of the key cities in Sudan’s oil production regions and represents a crucial strategic advantage for both warring parties. Diplomatic efforts to push both sides towards negotiations have so far delivered no results despite the RSF’s unilateral proclamation of a humanitarian ceasefire. The constant back and forth between the RSF and SAF in terms of territorial gains signals that neither side possesses the capabilities to militarily overcome the other, despite the immense foreign support that both sides receive. Unless constructive efforts are made by regional and international state actors, the war would continue indefinitely which substantially increases the possibility of another territorial partition of the country in the long – term.