Description: US President Donald Trump, confirmed that he talked over the phone with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro but refused to disclose or characterize the subject of the conversation. Several media sources have reported that Trump issued an ultimatum to Maduro to abandon the presidency in exchange for amnesty and retraction of his persecution by the US. Maduro reportedly refused the ultimatum and reiterated offers made in previous backchannel conversations which have allegedly included closer economic cooperation and permitted excavation of Venezuela’s natural resources such as rare earth minerals and oil. Trump later assembled a meeting with the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the Pentagon where options for further steps regarding the crisis were discussed. Over the weekend the US FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) announced that Venezuela’s airspace has been indefinitely closed due to security concerns. US Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, has come under severe scrutiny over the legality of the kinetic operations in the Caribbean Sea conducted by the US military, as recently disclosed footage demonstrated that boats and survivors were targeted by multiple airstrikes in violation of international law.
Impact: The US continues to increase the pressure on Maduro’s government through direct and indirect means while also increasing operational capabilities in the region by refurbishing its military bases in Trinidad and Tobago and Puerto Rico. Trump’s administration is devising ways to avoid direct military intervention in Venezuela while also enforcing the foreign policy agenda of removing Maduro from power. The protracted crisis has positioned the US in a precarious situation where neither withdrawal nor a violent overthrow of Maduro represents a real possibility. The US has continuously branded the operations to have been focused on countering illegal drug proliferation in the US which leaves the option for withdrawal once concrete results have been allegedly achieved. The direct contact between Trump and Maduro demonstrates that the US would insist on Maduro’s ouster from the presidency in the mid to long – term depending on the objectives and priorities of the Trump administration regarding the revolving crisis. The prospect of direct military intervention in a covert manner has significantly risen, since the closure of the airspace represents a prelude to some sort of operational activity. Tensions would continue to escalate with Maduro being faced with several impossible choices and substantial diplomatic and military pressure from the US to step down.