Description: The imposed fuel blockades in Mali’s capital, Bamako, and across other larger cities in the country have put public services in a standstill. The Al Qaeda affiliated terrorist organization has substantially expanded its territorial foothold further extending the streams of revenue and fragmentizing the power and control that Mali’s military junta exercises in the country. The French, Italian, German and the US embassies have warned their residents in the country to immediately leave since the crisis is expected to expand and unrest at this point seems imminent. JNIM have successfully imposed a fuel blockade since Sep, and the group effectively controls larger parts of the northern and western regions of the country. Mali also currently suffers from escalation of activities and violence perpetrated by ISIS – linked groups such as ISIS – Sahel. The African Union has also called upon greater international support in intelligence sharing, equipment and financing support to the crisis – affected countries in the region fighting terrorism and other forms of violent extremism.
Impact: Terrorism in the Sahel has reached new heights with organizations affiliated with Al Qaeda and ISIS holding the junta – led governments hostage in attempts to expand control and assert themselves as the prevailing ruling power in countries such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Mali’s inability to militarily counter JNIM has been considerably emphasized in the past couple of months since the junta – led government lacks the capacities, operational coordination, financial support and experience in countering sophisticated terrorist organizations on an operational level. Russian mercenary groups in the country have failed to replicate the effects of the French military troops that were stationed prior to the military coups in the country in 2021 and 2022. The public services standstill would continue with ripple effects in the near future as there are no existent indications of a more consolidated approach by Mali’s government and military towards neutralizing the threats from JNIM and other terrorist groups. The security crisis further catalyzes and extends the economic and humanitarian crises which are further compromising the junta – led government. The level of operational progression within JNIM’s ranks indicates that Mali would soon face a scenario where even larger parts of territory are controlled by terrorist groups plunging the country into further chaos and disarray.