Description: Anti – government protesters clashed with the military in the city of Otavalo which left 13 soldiers and almost 50 protesters injured. The demonstrations began back in Sep when President Daniel Noboa announced the cuts in state – sponsored diesel subsidies for the low – income population claiming they were used to fund illegal mining operations and criminal gangs. The protests are led by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) and have been mostly active in the capital, Quito, Otavalo and the province of Imbabura. Ecuador’s military has separately engaged in subverting criminal gangs which detonated a bomb laden vehicle and planted another device in the city of Guayaquil. The detonation killed one person and injured several others, with Interior Minister John Reimberg claiming the perpetrators were dissidents of the Colombian Revolutionary Armed Forces (FARC).
Impact: The multi – layered crisis in Ecuador continues to intensify with the combination of civil unrest, escalation in organized crime activities and enhanced military presence across the country. State of emergency has been declared in 10 provinces which would most probably expand on the entire territory of the country as President Noboa doubles down on stifling the civil unrest and the organized crime groups. Noboa previously was the target of an assassination attempt while attending one of the rural areas in Ecuador which illustrated the enhanced level of civil upheaval in the country. Ecuador is also having difficulties in combating organized criminal gangs which are expanding their operational footprint by cooperating in cohorts with dissidents from the decommissioned FARC in Colombia. The situation remains severely unstable with the government failing to address either crisis and more cities and regions become substantially unstable. President Noboa is yet to undertake a concrete measure to tackle the civil unrest and the gangs bar from the enhanced deployment of military personnel. Instability would persist in the mid – term as the government has evident issues in capacities to confront large – scale instability.