Description: Following the controversies surrounding the initial assessment on the US Midnight Hammer operation, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei reemerged from hiding addressing the nation and downplaying the US involvement in the 12 – day war. Khamenei’s statements regarding the mission were equally exaggerative as Trump’s and were aimed at discrediting the joint military operation launched by Israel and supported by the US while praising Iran’s defensive efforts and threatening further agression. Statements from both sides continued to diverge from objectivity with Iran remaining resolute their program was still active, while the Trump administration launched an aggressive media campaign of criticizing the leaked report from the DIA, claiming the nuclear sites were completely inoperable. Special report published by the CNN claimed the US was already preparing for engaging Iran diplomatically, with proposals such as the unfreezing of Iran’s $6 billion in foreign banks, sponsoring the development of a civilian nuclear program without enrichment using the Gulf countries as intermediaries, relaxing sanctions, and establishing a trade framework agreement. US Special envoy Steve Witkoff stated that active communication with his Iranian counterparts was signaling a possible rapprochement with the Iranians willing to negotiate. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi both denied such initiatives, however, they confirmed to be in active communication with the US.
Impact: Contradictions still engulf the success of the operation Midnight Hammer as opposing political narratives from the US and Iran make bottom line conclusions impossible. The debilitated ceasefire appears to be an interlude towards an active diplomatic engagement in the upcoming weeks which would most probably be encircled with distrust and heavy dose of skepticism, considering the US exploited the previous engagements with Iran to enable Israel to launch the 12 – day war. The report published by the CNN indicates the US has adopted a different and more hands-on diplomatic approach in resolving the disputes with Iran. The public shelving of the alleged proposed solutions might dissuade the Iranians even further, as the 12 – day war would most probably propel the regime towards rapidly reconstructing their heavily depleted nuclear program. The initial reengagement would also dictate the dimension of the negotiations, as Israel’s war in Gaza against Hamas is also expected to be included as one of the priorities waiting to be resolved going forward. The amount of positive incentives outlined in the proposals, such as the relaxing of sanctions, access to the frozen funds in foreign banks and the potential development of trade relations, might prompt the Iranian regime to adopt a different position approaching the renewed negotiations. Volatile post war animosities still prevail despite the US insistency on reengaging with Iran diplomatically as an evident clash over Iran’s nuclear ambitions still hoovers over the potential resolution to the crisis.