Description: Ukraine’s drone commander, Robert Brovdi, has stated that more than 36 Russian tankers have been targeted in the past four days in the Sea of Azov, accompanied by drone attacks on other energy infrastructure in western Russia and Crimea. Ukraine has vastly intensified its drone campaign in the last couple of months, exclusively targeting Russian energy infrastructure targets and shadow fleet tankers carrying oil and gas to regions such as Crimea. The latest round of drone attacks focused on the regions of Stavropol, Tver and Rostov where fuel terminals and more than 12 shadow fleet tankers were set ablaze. Russia in response has continued to target Kyiv with ballistic missiles and one – way attack drones while announcing that it would restrict oil and gas exports as estimated 90% of Russia’s western regions were suffering energy shortages. President Trump while attending the NATO Summit in Ankara stated that Ukraine would be allowed to manufacture Patriot interceptors and a blueprint from the major companies developing the interceptors would be delivered to a European manufacturer.
Impact: Ukraine’s intensification of its drone campaign would likely translate from tactical advantages towards increased domestic pressure on Russia’s government as fuel shortages are becoming daily occurrences in several regions. Trump’s statements to allow Ukraine to develop Patriot interceptors is likely a symbolic political move which would take time to materialize. Ukraine’s access to Patriots is highly likely going to increase the country’s defensive capabilities and neutralize one of Russia’s largest aerial advantages in the ballistic missile department. Although Ukraine is currently in a likely tactically advantageous position, Russia’s entrenchment in major regions in eastern Ukraine is presently not affected. Ukraine’s energy isolation of Crimea is likely to translate to further operational successes as Russia’s defensive and offensive posture is highly likely to change in the short to mid – term, leaving key positions across the frontlines undefended. The absence of diplomatic traction is highly likely going to translate towards short to mid – term escalation of the war as both countries continue to exchange aerial attacks, with Ukraine presently holding a slight tactical advantage.