Description: Israeli and Lebanese delegations arrived in Rome for the seventh round of talks between the two countries after the trilateral framework was signed on 26 Jun. The seventh round of talks is expected to last three days and include discussions around the expansion of the pilot zone project, where the Israeli military withdraws from predesignated areas while the Lebanese military reasserts its presence. The key issue in the negotiations remained the disarmament of Hezbollah, which reiterated its stance on the trilateral framework. Secretary General Naim Qassem, called the negotiations futile, shameful and labeled Lebanon’s President, Joseph Aoun, as an arbiter instead of a unifying head of government. The negotiations are also expected to include border demarcation points, reminiscent of the Israeli – Lebanese border from 1923. Lebanon accused Israel of continuing to conduct military operations on several locations in the southern parts of the country, reportedly demolishing houses and bombing agricultural land with phosphorus bombs.
Impact: Outstanding differences and interpretation of the trilateral framework from Lebanon and Israel would likely persist in the short – term, which likely jeopardizes the prospect of the framework becoming a long-lasting peace agreement. Israel has repeatedly conditioned its military withdrawal with the disarmament of Hezbollah which is a point of contention that is unlikely to be achieved in the short to mid – term period. Lebanon has reinforced its public narrative of reasserting control and sovereignty over its southern territories, however, the LAF’s inability to effectively impose disarmament conditions upon Hezbollah is unlikely to change in the short to mid – term period. Hezbollah has so far avoided responding militarily to the trilateral framework and the ongoing negotiations which is likely due to its depleted capabilities to even wage asymmetrical warfare against Israel and also likely due to its affirmative stance on the status quo. This likely leads to a stalemate between Israel and Lebanon, where Lebanon would figuratively reestablish control over its southern territories while Israel would provisionally agree to adherence of the trilateral framework. The situation is also dependent on the ongoing war between Iran and the US which is unlikely to be resolved in the short to mid – term and eventually leads to a state of frozen conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in the short to mid – term period.