Description: Ouster oppositional leader, Ozgur Ozel, drew thousands of protesters in Ankara after Turkey’s appeals Court annulled the CHP’s (Republican People’s Party) party congress decision, naming Ozel as the leader, last week. The protests were a wide demonstration of the deep political crisis in the country with President Erdogan reinforcing the installment of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a controversial figure within CHP’s ranks. Mansur Yavas, Ankara’s Mayor and one of Erdogan’s biggest political opponents who is also a presidential candidate in CHP’s ranks, also joined the protests and called for renewed congress of the party. Protesters followed the oppositional candidates after earlier this month Turkish police stormed CHP’s headquarters after the appeals Court decision to overrule the 2023 congress results.
Impact: The ongoing civic unrest, prompted by Erdogan’s instrumentalization of judicial bodies, would likely persist, further deteriorating Turkey’s international economic standing and dissuading foreign capital away from the domestic financial flows. This impact would likely be compounded by a prolonged political crisis, since the next election is scheduled for 2028, which in turn could likely reflect on downsizing Turkey’s regional ambitions and further disrupt the country both politically and economically. Erdogan’s power struggle with the oppositional candidates would most likely impact his party’s standing and reinforce the opposition’s public narrative for the next election. Large – scale macroeconomic devaluation and internal instability would likely persist in the short – term with the opposition increasing the pressure on Erdogan.