Description: Thai prime minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, stated that Thailand would nullify the agreement with Cambodia established in 2001 for a joint territorial maritime cooperation to exploit offshore oil and gas reserves. The decision was received with a dose of disappointment by Cambodia’s government which stated that alternative measures to resolve the disputes along the provisions of the agreement will be pursued in the confines of the UN. Anutin presented the decision as part of his policy measures which had little to do with the border dispute with Cambodia. He was elected last year on a wave of nationalism and after two grueling rounds of border fighting with Cambodia. Anutin also added that Thailand’s exit from the agreement was because little to no progress has been reported in the 25 years of negotiations between the two countries.
Impact: Thailand’s withdrawal from the agreement is likely to stoke fresh tensions between the two countries in the mid to long – term, especially if Thailand decides to pursue unilateral energy projects in the overlapping territories. Cambodia’s mild response to Thailand nullifying the agreement is most likely a temporary measure and a deflection of escalatory narrative. The scrapping of the agreement effectively allows Thailand to violate previously demarcated maritime territories which is highly likely to be responded to through a military intervention on Cambodia’s part. Thailand’s move also degrades the region’s energy prospects and is likely a unilateral decision in order to reinstitute control over offshore drilling sites. The situation has no immediate potential of rising tensions between the two countries, however, it represents another point of territorial confliction that could lead towards renewed hostilities in the long – term.