Description: Sudan’s military government has recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia for consultations after military officials stated that the latest drone attacks by the RSF were facilitated from Ethiopia’s Bahir Dar Airport. The drone attack on Khartoum’s commercial airport was successfully intercepted by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) which have stated that Ethiopia’s constant sponsoring of the RSF and its partners from the UAE would not go unanswered. Ethiopia’s foreign ministry also issued a statement claiming that Sudan has continuously violated its territorial integrity by arming and logistically supporting rebels in the Tigray region. In Ethiopia the Tigrayan party has reinstated pre – war administration and a legislative council consisting of TPLF members that administered the region before the 2020 – 2022 civil war in the country. TPLF announced last month that it would reinstate the old administration due to continuous violations of the Praetoria peace agreement by Ethiopia’s federal government led by Abiy Ahmed. The US Department of Treasury has meanwhile announced that sanctions against Ethiopia’s neighbor, Eritrea would be lifted as a move to deescalate tensions between the two countries and allow the US direct access to Red Sea shipping.
Impact: Political tensions between Sudan and Ethiopia would likely lead towards further hostilities which would be reflected through diplomatic, political or military means in the short to mid – term period. Sensitive points of confliction such as Sudan’s support to the TPLF or Ethiopia’s support for the RSF could lead towards expanding the civil war in Sudan across the Ethiopian border, effectively deepening the regional crisis towards Eritrea. TPLF’s restoration of its administration in the Tigray would likely lead towards a more aggressive stance by prime minister Ahmed’s government and military forces further raising the risk of civil war. The lifting of sanctions by the US Department of Treasury on Eritrea would likely be ill perceived by Ethiopia which has had a decades long dispute with Eritrea over sea access. The entire political and diplomatic landscape of tensions is likely to be catalyzed by the wartime conditions in the region which could lead towards a broader war in case political and diplomatic solutions to the tensions do not prevail.