Description: Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have successfully captured the town of Kurmuk and the surrounding Al – Baraka and Al – Keili regions supported by the allied SPLM – N (Sudan People’s Liberation Movement North). The frontline of the civil war has rapidly expanded over the past week across Blue Nile state in southeastern Sudan where the RSF and the SPLM – N are receiving logistical and military support from the base located in Ethiopia’s Benishangul – Gumuz region, which was built and financed by the UAE. Unidentified drone attacks in the eastern parts of Sudan in the Darfur region have struck a UN aid convoy destroying all supplies intended for refugees located in the town of Tawila. RSF was also discovered to hold prisoners in El – Fasher in desperately dire conditions who are subjected to torture and sexual violence.
Impact: The rapid expansion of the civil war’s frontlines likely signals sustained economic, military and political cross – border ties between the RSF, its domestic allied armed groups and foreign partners in Ethiopia and South Sudan. The expansion of the frontline towards Blue Nile State compounds the risk factor of the civil war likely expanding its dimension on a regional level, where opposition groups in South Sudan or the Tigrayan forces in Ethiopia could instigate additional flashpoints of violence. The attack on the UN aid convoy further emphasizes the need for international intervention which at this point is highly unlikely considering global humanitarian aid financing shortages and focus on other conflict flashpoints such as Iran or Ukraine. RSF and SAF control the humanitarian corridors while the constant armed confrontations makes organizations such as UN unable to deliver the desperately needed aid towards the most affected regions. With two parallel fronts active in Kordofan and Blue Nile State, the civil war would likely intensify in the short – term raising the potential for a wider regional crisis in the long – term.