Description: More than 39 people were kidnapped in Zamfara state, northwestern Nigeria, during a meeting between the local bandits and tribal elders which was expected to result in a peaceful resolution regarding local administration issues. Bandits are focused in Katsina, Zamfara and Borno states, drawing larger recruitment efforts from the local Fulani population. Their organizations flourish in a permissive security environment due to the lack of presence from Nigeria’s law enforcement or military forces. Kidnappings are leveraged by the bandits to enforce political or economic concessions from the government which in turn contributes to the legitimacy of the local gangs, separatist and terrorist factions operating in Nigeria’s vast inland and border states.
Impact: Nigeria is highly likely facing a continuation of the decades – long domestic security issues, as bandits increase their operational outreach, terrorist groups leverage repression in local communities while separatist groups exploit the power vacuum to enforce their demands. The bandit crisis has vastly expanded in the northeastern and northwestern parts of the country where bandits likely exploit the absence of police and military forces to command control over larger local populations and vast territory. The government largely lacks capacity to counteract the kidnappings, attacks on its military and police as well as the terrorization of the civil population which highly likely positions Nigeria in a revolving state of crisis with the only outlet being strong international support and constant military presence by a larger power. The US and Turkey have emerged as the likeliest candidates, however, both countries are adopting a hands – off approach and support the Nigerian government through temporary intelligence sharing, limited joint military operations and temporary deliveries of equipment and logistical support. This ultimately signals that bandits, terrorists and separatist organizations would likely further expand their areas of control, impose corridors of economic cooperation and become the de – facto local administration in larger parts of northwestern and northeastern Nigeria in the mid to long – term.