Description: Myanmar’s Public Defense Forces (PDF), one of the many civil militia groups fighting the country’s military junta, has started losing significant ground around Myanmar’s northern cities of Mandalay and Myitkyina. Locations such as Kachin, Chin and Karen state are the latest flashpoints of armed clashes between rebel factions and the junta, where the junta managed to establish control over larger parts of territory in these three states. The junta is reportedly increasing its forced conscription measures within the last couple of months which has led to both wide scale desertion and increase in the junta’s military ranks. Most of the forcibly conscripted soldiers have no military background and were civilians. PDF’s high command through the BBC’s special video and interview report from the conflict zone, stated that the junta has been propped by Russian military support, primarily airpower, and modern equipment which significantly outpowers the PDF and disables its troops from counterbalancing the military playing field. Separately from the fronts, the Filipino Foreign Minister, Theresa Lazaro, stated the she planned to visit and meet with Myanmar’s ethnic groups in order to learn more about the ongoing situation. Lazaro was previously appointed by the Filipino President, Ferdinand Marcos Junior as the country’s special representative for Myanmar in a period when the Philippines chair the ASEAN.
Impact: The current situation of the civil war in Myanmar highly likely indicates increased assertion from Russia and China which prop up the junta’s forces to establish themselves as the ruling government in the country in the long – term. The rebel forces are evidently pressured throughout the fronts, lacking airpower, weapons and logistical support which likely indicates the junta would increase ground and aerial operations in the upcoming period in order to establish control over larger swathes of territory. The engagement from the Philippines with the rebel forces in an official capacity is highly likely due to the country’s attempt to primarily decrease China’s influence over Myanmar and its mineral rich regions. Countering China in Myanmar would likely open another front of regional geopolitical competition and could potentially result in increased tensions in the Indo – Pacific theater. The junta is currently in a favorable position to strengthen its regime in the country, while the rebels would likely campaign for increased foreign support in the short to mid – term.