Description: Myanmar’s military president, General Min Aung Hlaing, invited rebel groups such as the Karen National Union, the Chin National Front and the All-Burma Students’ Democratic Front to join a potential peace framework which is expected within the next 100 days. Hlaing stated that rebel groups in the country would have more than 3 months to officially join multilateral negotiations which would be led in the framework of peace, economic and infrastructure development for ending the civil war in the country. The National Unity Government, the leading anti – military group in the country, renounced the proposal and stated that alongside another rebel group, the People’s Defense Force, would continue fighting until their objectives are achieved. Out of the 21 rebel groups operating in Myanmar, ten have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreements in 2015 and 2018 which ever since the ouster of Myanmar’s civil government in 2021 has come under scrutiny. The Ta’ang National Liberation Army was one of the few rebel groups accepting Hlaing’s invitation while also congratulating him on the presidency.
Impact: Hlaing’s invitation to the rebel groups likely represents a political maneuver for consolidating power, drawing the more willing armed groups within the junta’s orbit of influence. Hlaing’s proposal arrives only a day after he announced nationwide pardons which likely signals that he aims at immediately capitalizing on the political move to free anti – junta prisoners by consolidating rebel groups within a proposed peace framework. Larger rebel groups have already refused his offer signaling prolonged infighting and mutual consolidation against the widening influence of the military government. China as the major foreign actor in the conflict would likely consolidate political capital and soft power influence around Hlaing and potentially put pressure on smaller or mid – sized rebel groups to join the peace initiative within the next hundred days. The civil war is likely still far from terminal resolution as more than 21 rebel groups remain active in the country and there is a constant trend of shifting alliances and inter – rebel armed conflicts.