Description: The US government is reportedly considering to bypass the UK and offer a direct agreement to the government of Mauritius for the purchase of the Chagos Islands. The Islands host one of the most important US naval bases in the region, Diego Garcia, and late last year, the UK government agreed to cede control of the Islands to the government of Mauritius. President Donald Trump has heavily criticized the deal and labeled it as a strategic mistake that could cost both the US and the UK. Mauritius was a former UK colony, and the UK forcibly removed indigenous Chagossians from the Islands. After lengthy legal and political battles, the UK finally agreed to cede control over the Islands and pay up to $135 million on an annual basis for the maintenance of the base.
Impact: The US would highly likely leverage political and diplomatic pressure over the Chagos Islands on the UK, which in turn compromises the agreement and opens the UK to further public scrutiny. Mauritius would unlikely agree to ceding the Islands to the US for any price, as the combination of colonial past, human rights violations and the previously concluded agreement with the UK would present major obstacles. China exercises wide amount of soft power influence over Mauritius and could likely perceive and exploit the rifts between the US and the UK to complicate the situation and potentially remove a key naval base in a region it aims to exercise influence over. The Chagos Islands could become a flashpoint for political confliction between the US and the UK in the mid to long – term.