Description: JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) managed to force the Malian military and Russian mercenaries out of another key town near the tristate border area between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Malian military forces and Russian mercenaries surrendered to the FLA and JNIM in the city of Tessit after being overwhelmed by coordinated attacks over the weekend that has since continued unabated. The estimated number of the joint military initiative launched over the weekend exceeded 10 thousand fighters who have managed to easily overwhelm the military and the Russian mercenaries from Africa Corps fairly easily. Mali’s military managed to push back some parts of the offensive supported by Russian air forces, however, the FLA and JNIM have so far secured several key towns previously known as strongholds of the military junta, having previously expelled the Russian mercenaries and the Malian military from the key city of Kidal.
Impact: FLA and JNIM’s joint military offensive is likely expected to escalate in the immediate term with the seizure of additional territories under the control of Mali’s military junta. The large number of fighters involved in the offensive likely indicates that both JNIM and the FLA have extensive capabilities of waging an asymmetric rebellion over larger parts of the country for sustained period of time which in turn opens the possibility for fracturing the country into several regions under different control. International intervention is highly unlikely since Mali has bet its internal security on Russian mercenaries who have had mixed results in neutralizing the country’s domestic security threats. Open-source reporting indicates that Russia is using Guinea’s ports to transfer weapons and equipment to Mali’s military junta and its Russian mercenaries which likely indicates that a counteroffensive is already in motion. The country’s risk portfolio continues to expand which could likely incentivize armed opposition and terrorist groups in neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso that might feel empowered to launch military offensives against their respective governments. The civilian population is positioned in a precarious situation where it’s forced to choose between a rising combination of terrorist and separatist insurgency, dire economic conditions and cost of living shortages and an oppressive military junta leadership. Mali’s military government is faced with an impossible choice to either engage in a political discourse with the insurgents or surrender parts of its territory which likely incites territorial partition in the long – term period.