Description: Terrorists from Al Qaeda’s regional offshoot, JNIM, and Tuareg rebels called the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) joined forces to launch one of the largest military offensives against the ruling military junta in the country. VBIEDs, RPGs, small arms, kamikaze drones, heavy artillery shells as well as convoys of technical vehicles were used in the offensive on the cities of Bamako, Kidal, Gao, Sevare, Mopti and Kati. Malian defense minister, Saddio Camara was reported to have been killed early in the attacks with the total number of casualties on any side still unknown. Camara was the architect of the junta’s foreign policy and managed to secure Mali’s withdrawal from ECOWAS, the UN, the expulsion of French troops from the country and the termination of the peace agreement with the Tuareg rebels in 2024 which was concluded back in 2015. Officials from both JNIM and the FLA officially proclaimed their alliance and stated that major cities and military checkpoints have fallen under their control. Russian mercenaries and the Malian military have stated the opposite, terrorist and separatist have been pushed back from major cities while clean up operations were still ongoing. Independent video footage demonstrated that fighting is still ongoing with Mali’s military supported by the junta having a slight advantage. Africa Corps, the Russian mercenaries, were previously pushed out of the city of Kidal after having negotiated with JNIM and the FLA. JNIM additionally urged the Russian forces to refrain from fighting alongside Mali’s military and leave a channel of communication for future cooperation.
Impact: Terrorist and separatist groups are seemingly superseding ethnic and ideological differences to form larger military alliances to topple the military junta from its governing position. Mali’s pursuit of isolationist and nationalistic domestic and foreign policies could likely plunge the country into a prolonged period of crisis, where separatist and terrorist groups could control larger swathes of territory, effectively controlling key supply lines and governing by force. The majority of the attacks were conducted in central and southern Mali which likely poses a risk to the northeast parts of the country and reignition of terrorist activities, where offshoots of the Islamic State, such as the Islamic State Sahel Province, are active. JNIM and FLA’s military offensive likely provides both groups with extension of territory under control which in turn would enable both organizations to consolidate recruitment efforts, establish stable lines of supply and control over major critical infrastructure such as roads and gas stations, exploiting the additional energy crisis in the country for staging a prolonged offensive against the military government. The partnership between JNIM and the FLA is reminiscent of the one that instigated the Malian war in 2012 which likely indicates that this a temporary alliance of convenience that could transpire towards disintegration rapidly which in turn could likely instigate infighting between terrorists and separatists. ISIS’ presence in the northeast is another critical component of the security dissolution in the country and poses a risk to Mali’s territorial integrity as the country could be dissolved in the long – term if the terrorist and separatist groups intensify their attacks. Instability is likely to persist in the long – term with the military junta in a precarious position to remain the governing entity pressed upon the armed rebellion in the country.