Description: Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, announced that the major Pacific Link crude oil project would be expedited and expected to begin development as early as 2032. Carney announced the project from the tar sands region in Alberta, a separatist region of Canada which is set to vote on its independence on 25 Oct. The project was also announced as Canada is engaged in an open trade war with the US, due to the US’ protectionist tariff policies forwarded by the Trump administration. According to Carney, the Pacific Link crude oil project would decrease Canada’s dependency on US exports by 65 to 70% and diversify its foreign economic policy towards the Asian market with an approximate 1.5 to 2 million bpd. The Pacific link pipeline would run from Alberta’s oil patches all the way to Canada’s west coastline and its primary target would be countries such as Japan, South Korea and China. Asked about environmental and indigenous people’s opposition towards the project, Carney stated that all the groups are already engaged into intense consultations with the Canadian government, while indigenous groups would be offered a 10% ownership stake in the project. Project development would be shared between the Canadian federal government, the government of Alberta and two corporations, Trans Mountain Corp and Pembina Pipeline Corp.
Impact: Canada’s Pacific Link crude oil project would highly likely position Canada as a major energy hub on the struggling global market. Announcing the project from resource – rich but politically distant Alberta, Carney likely aims to stem the regions separatist aspirations and address the local concerns over economic negligence. Targeting the energy ambitious Asian market through a pipeline that could export almost 2 million bpd is highly likely a major strategic advantage for Canada and would provide the Asian countries with an outlet for the costs and risks of the current energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. The US is likely to perceive the announcement of the project as a potential escalation to the trade war, especially due to Canada’s targeted export of oil towards China. Even though the economic results from the project are expected in the long – term, Carney is likely using the announcement to further project Canada’s economic and energy independence, using it as a counterbalance to Trump’s tariffs. Carney’s inclusion of environmental and indigenous people groups is likely an elegant political move aimed at reducing or removing any oppositional forces to the project, while at the same time addressing the economic and environment safety concerns of the major project.