Description: Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated that Iran would not negotiate under threats or duress and currently the Islamic Republic is still deliberating whether to send a delegation to Islamabad for the second round of peace talks with the US. Tensions escalated with the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and especially after US Marines seized the Iranian vessel in the Omani part of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan intensified security measures in the capital awaiting the US and Iranian delegations as diplomatic efforts intensified over the past couple of weeks. Turkey also expressed optimism that both sides would determine that diplomatic engagement is superior compared to return of warfare. President Trump’s statements were naturally inconclusive and shifted between successful negotiating process and complete return to war. Yemen’s Houthis have reiterated their threats to close off the Bab El Mandeb Strait, another critical maritime trade juncture following the recent escalation of tensions. Lebanon and Israel announced they would continue negotiating and potentially expand the timeframe of the current ceasefire.
Impact: Iran and the US are currently in a diplomatic standoff where trust is significantly eroded while both countries are likely to continue hedging their bets on which side has the more leverage under the current constellation of power dynamics within the negotiations framework. The US is weighing that threatening to bomb Iran’s critical infrastructure, such as power and desalination plants and bridges would pressure Iran back to the negotiating table while Iran is weighing most of its leverage on the Hormuz blockade and considers outlasting the US in the last hours before the ceasefire deadline expires. Pakistan’s preemptive preparations are likely an indication of positive feedback from the Iranians, which in turn signals the negotiations would likely happen within the current week. Lebanon and Israel’s continuation of the ceasefire likely indicates that backchannel communication between the multilateral negotiators is active, and the second round of peace talks would likely soon materialize. Returning to warfare currently remains the likeliest short – term scenario as the US administration has demonstrated high levels of diplomatic ineptness and political impatience to resolve the crisis, as an extension to the ceasefire also presents itself as a viable immediate option to avoid renewed conflict.