Description: Iran has targeted the Kuwait International Airport, the largest commercial airport in Kuwait, injuring 63 people and killing one individual, after the US Navy fired hellfire missiles into the engine block of a tanker suspected of being under Iranian ownership. Despite the continued exchange of attacks, Iran and the US remain in a diplomatic standoff with the negotiations widely considered as ongoing despite Iran’s withdrawal earlier this week. Lebanon and Israel continued US – mediated talks in Washington and formally extended the ceasefire with Israel pledging to continue ground operations as part of the enforcement of the military buffer zone in Lebanon’s southern parts. The US House of Representatives has meanwhile passed a war powers resolution which is aimed at limiting Trump’s decision-making powers primarily in regard to the war with Iran. The resolution would require Trump to seek Congressional approval for extending US military operations in the region or withdrawing the US troops indefinitely.
Impact: Despite officially being under the constraints of a ceasefire, the US and Iran are likely to continue the ongoing skirmishes as final operational posturing that has largely been made before some form of a temporary agreement is concluded in the mid – term is likely in effect. Israel would most likely present the largest threat to the potential upcoming agreement since the IDF would highly likely continue operations despite pressure from the US. The Israel – Lebanon ceasefire is symbolic and likely presents an official cover which would allow Israel to continue ground operations. Iran could likely pressure Hezbollah to cease bombardments and other forms of operations which is highly likely a decision contingent on Israel’s immediate actions. The decision by the US House of Representatives likely bears no political weight or administrative power to constrain the war since it is yet to be confirmed in the Senate and is unlikely to be signed by the US President. Instability would persist in the short to mid – term with the potential of a temporary peace agreement rising.