Description: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have captured two cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz using speedboats. The Liberian – flagged Epaminondas and the Panama – flagged MSC Francesca were rerouted to Iranian territorial waters for inspection. The attack arrives after the US also captured another Iranian ship on the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz and in the midst of a recently extended ceasefire. Conflicting reports showed that Trump flirted with the idea of cutting the ceasefire short on Sunday or within the next week if a concise response is not solicitated from the Iranians. The Strait of Hormuz remains an immediate point of confliction where either side seems reluctant to relinquish control. In its latest threats the IRGC mentioned the Yanbu port and Fujairah port in Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as a potential blockade of the Bab El Mandeb Strait as well as disrupting undersea cables around the Strait of Hormuz.
Impact: The recently extended ceasefire is expectedly accompanied by the exchange of bilateral threats and military posturing around the Strait of Hormuz which likely indicates a return to warfare in the short to mid – term period. Pakistan’s mediation efforts, despite being admirable, are also currently stalled since neither the US nor Iran are willing to recede control over the key waterway. The standstill likely proves that both countries are resorting towards some form of economic pressure where either side wants to achieve formal military capitulation by the other through economic exhaustion. The standoff currently benefits the US more as Iran’s economy strongly depends on oil exports through the Strait, however, it also benefits Iran’s allies such as Russia and China. Iran’s renewed threats signal a likely expansion of their counteroffensive to new targets such as major ports in Saudi Arabia and UAE and undersea cables which is likely an overt negotiations posturing to push the US to remove the blockade. Neither side is seemingly pivoting under pressure, which likely indicates that the ceasefire would be short lived unless the second round of talks materializes in the immediate to short – term period.