Description: Having repaired the Druzhba pipeline, Ukraine officials stated that oil should be flowing promptly from Russia to Slovakia and Hungary, ensuring the 90 billion euros EU loan goes forward. Hungary under Orban has been strongly opposed to the loan, blaming Ukraine of energy blackmail in cahoots with the European Union. Russia stated that it plans of cutting oil flow to Germany passing through the Druzhba pipeline from Kazakhstan from 01 May potentially as a sign of restraining Europe energetically in times of global energy crisis. Ukrainian officials have stated that two thirds of the 90 billion euros would be spent on defense while one third on other expenses related to running the country. The EU also outlined the 20th package of Russian sanctions which included bans on Russian flagged LNG tankers, icebreakers and companies which have more than 50% Russian ownership. Sanctions on the ports of Murmansk and Tuapse as well as bans on cryptocurrency transactions, import bans and restrictions on other commercial activities related to Russian business entities. The EU also disclosed the AccelerateEU emergency energy plan which proposes a swift shift towards renewable sources of energy and rapid decrease of fossil fuel dependency.
Impact: Europe’s loan to Ukraine, which was contingent on access to Russian oil for Slovakia and Hungary, likely demonstrates the continent’s strategic shallowness and inability to adequately tackle a global energy crisis while duplicitously maintaining energy ties with hostile countries such as Russia. The loan naturally benefits Ukraine which is aiming to bolster its defensive and offensive capabilities and keep afloat its wartime economy. Russia has largely benefited from the war in Iran through its oil and gas dominance on the global market while the new sanctions package is unlikely to cripple any of the existing illegal capabilities of Russia to sell and transport commodities on the black market and to partner states. The AccelerateEU emergency energy plan likely confirms the global necessity for shifting from fossil fuels to renewables, however, considering EU’s bureaucratic constraints even in emergency situations, the plan would likely take years to implement and execute.