Description: Ethiopia is facing one of its most defining elections which are expected to deliver a dominant victory for the incumbent Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party. The country is facing several domestic and foreign conundrums, with separatist movements such as the TPLF being banned from the election. Soldiers pertaining to the TPLF were continuing to recruit children and force conscription of young people from the separatist region which signaled larger mobilization efforts in anticipation of renewed skirmishes with the ENDF. Ethiopia faces multiple domestic security crises correlated to separatist movements, such as the TPLF in the Tigray region, Fano militias in the Amhara region and the Oromo Liberation Army in the Oromia region, which are compounded by external threats such as the war in Sudan and ongoing tensions with Eritrea and Egypt. Overwhelming reports indicate that Ahmed’s Prosperity Party would remain the dominant political force in the country with numerous other domestic issues such as high inflation rates, unemployment and repression of basic human rights remaining marginalized.
Impact: The exclusion of the Tigray region likely confirms its de – facto separation from the country and likely represents a launchpad for continued political and military tensions and conflicts in the country. Domestic issues such as difficult economic conditions in the rural areas, numerous armed separatist movements are likely to persist under Ahmed’s continued premiership. Ahmed would likely be faced with an impossible choice of maintain the public Nobel Peace prize winner image and denouncing separatist movements from de – facto controlling large swathes of Ethiopian territory. This could likely lead to the intensification of repressive measures, more aggressive posturing towards rivaling Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt, and enhancing political crackdown of separatist movements while remaining in an open conflict situation across several regions. Tensions would likely continue to escalate, while an all – out war is currently an unlikely prospect. The TPLF, the Amhara militias and the Oromo Liberation Army are highly likely to intensify military operations in the mid to long – term which could operationally dispose the ENDF (Ethiopian National Defense Forces) and prompt them to intervene more aggressively.