Description: General Francis Donovan, head of US SOCOM met with Lieutenant General Roberto Sotolongo near the US Navy base in Guantanamo Bay. The meeting followed previous diplomatic engagements made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA chief John Ratcliffe which further pushed both countries onto an adversarial bilateral path. The US indicted former Cuban President, Raul Castro on criminal charges earlier this month, further intensifying diplomatic pressure on Cuba’s administration. Aircraft carriers and military personnel remained deployed in the Caribbean Sea, most notably the USS Nimitz, enforcing an energy and commodities blockade imposed earlier this year. Meanwhile, ordinary Cubans are facing severe economic strains from water and power shortages to upscaling cost of living expenses, following years of US embargoes and economic blockades.
Impact: The US military and economic blockade would highly likely persist in the immediate term, compounded by constant threats of military intervention aimed at reshaping Cuba’s political model. A Venezuela – style leadership decapitation operations is currently unlikely and strategically counterproductive, since no members of the current Cuban administration have the potential of succeeding the current Cuban leadership structure. Humanitarian and economic conditions are likely to further deteriorate, pressuring Cuba’s government while the possibility of a regional refugee crisis remains a viable option in the short – term. The negotiations of military officials are unlikely to deliver any considerable diplomatic progress, since both politically and militarily the US and Cuba have been disengaged for decades.