Description: Ivan Cepeda, the ally of incumbent President Gustavo Petro, will face off with right – wing candidate Aberaldo de la Espriella in the highly anticipated presidential election in Colombia. The election would mark a decisive choice in the country’s decades – long war against drug cartels and domestic insurgents. President Petro’s Total Peace campaign failed to persuade all the insurgent groups onto the negotiating table, as numerous conflicts across the country’s illegal mining and trade regions are ongoing. Espriella ran on a platform to abandon the peace talks with the insurgent groups and enforce a tougher stance on drug cartels while Cepeda pledged to continue Petro’s pursuit of peaceful resolution.
Impact: The country is likely facing a Mexico – scenario of perpetual war against drug cartels and domestic armed insurgents regardless of the election results, considering the rapid upsurge in insurgent and political violence since the beginning of this year. The existing Total Peace strategy by the Gustavo Petro administration has proven ineffective and is likely to persuade voters to lean rightward in the upcoming elections, expecting a tougher stance on armed insurgents and drug cartels, meaning Espriella would be expected to at least lead the first round of elections. Colombia’s insurgent and political violence would likely persist in the long – term, since insurgent groups and drug cartels have deeply entrenched themselves into the social fabric of the country.