Description: Abelardo de la Espriella, the right – wing and pro – Trump presidential candidate finished in the lead ahead of leftist Ivan Cepeda after the first round of the election in Colombia. Espriella led Cepeda by 670 thousand votes as he won 43.7% of the votes compared to Cepeda’s 40.9%. The runoff election is scheduled for 21 Jun where more than 1 million votes are up for grabs from both political camps. After Espriella’s first round victory, Senator Paloma Valencia who won 7% of the votes endorsed him, pitting most of her political camp behind the far – right candidate. Cepeda and incumbent President Gustavo Petro, contested the results presenting no substantial evidence while most polls indicated that Espriella would eventually be elected as the new President of Colombia. Cepeda, a key architect of Petro’s Total Peace initiative that led to the historic signing of the peace agreement with FARC in 2016 presumably lost votes due to the policy insistence of remaining on the negotiating track with rebels and insurgent groups operating in Colombia. Espriella offered a hardline approach to the country’s security and economic problems, pledging to undertake a tougher stance alike the one of El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele.
Impact: Colombia is likely set to join the rightward political camp flourishing in South America which would likely align the country on better terms with the US. Espriella’s likely victory is unlikely to resolve the domestic security problems, especially drawing comparisons to Bukele who was discovered to have made an agreement with El Salvadorean gang MS – 13 in order to keep the peace and lower mortality and violence rates across the country. Rebel groups and narcotrafficking gangs have been part of Colombia’s social fabric for decades and are unlikely to be dissuaded through the hardline approach policies suggested by Espriella. Colombia would likely benefit in case Espriella wins, since restoration and normalization of ties with the US are highly likely and would most likely receive financial aid, trade benefits and closer security cooperation in return. The rightward shift in Colombia likely compounds on the larger US strategic priority to reestablish firm control over the South American countries, drawing them back into its sphere of influence.