Description: Philippine leader, Ferdinand Marcos Junior met with Vietnamese Prime Minister, To Lam in Hanoi, where they confirmed their decades – long partnership, trade ties and security cooperation. Both leaders highlighted the importance of maintaining the rule – based order in the South China Sea in spite of overlapping territorial claims and heightened assertion by China. The leaders also confirmed elevated cooperation in economic fields such as defense cooperation, technology and information, tourism and educational exchanges. China meanwhile conducted several aggressive patrol passes in the South China Sea as a response to Japan’s reemergence in the region. Ferdinand Marcos Junior previously met with Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, when they similarly to the visit in Vietnam, emphasized the importance of the contested waterway, by announcing joint initiatives to assert control over the disputed maritime route.
Impact: Tensions in the Indo – Pacific region would likely continue, as persistent overlapping claims of crucial maritime trade corridors spur further disputes. China and Japan are likely to remain at odds since Japan has undertaken a tougher stance on China’s aggressive reassertion in the region ever since Prime Minister Takaichi was elected. Vietnam would likely maintain its multifrontal strategic approach through nurturing ties with China, while also developing important economic, trade and defense ties with China’s regional adversaries. The Philippines are likely to remain defiant to China’s claims in the disputed waterways which would likely lead to more confrontations between the respective coast guards. Outside of aggressive maritime confrontations, stern political and diplomatic rhetoric, the confliction is unlikely to escalate into direct confrontation anytime soon.