Description: Venezuelan opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, officially returned to Venezuela during the government’s negotiations with the oppositional political block. Supporters expressed outpouring support for her return. Machado won the primary election against former President Nicolas Maduro in 2023 but was banned from running. She was replaced by Edmundo Gonzalez, who many proclaimed as the winner of the 2024 election. Her previous attempts to return to the country were either cut short due to logistical reasons or security warnings from the US. The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, stated that her return is the direct result of the reconciliation between political fractions in the country mediated by the US.
Impact: Machado’s return to Venezuela was highly likely facilitated by the US which are likely to position Machado as the country’s next President. Her arrival in the middle of political negotiations between the government and the opposition parties in Venezuela is highly likely to involve Machado in direct talks. Venezuela is likely to hold elections in the next 6 to 9 months since public calls and protests for a democratic transition have sustained since the ouster of Maduro. Machado is highly likely favored by the US to succeed Delcy Rodriguez, since the former has expressed her willingness to openly cooperate with the US on energy, mining deals and security issues in the Caribbean.