Description: US special envoy Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. The talks lasted for more than three hours where the war in Ukraine, Iran and other developments were discussed. Putin reportedly agreed to restart trilateral talks under US mediation on a technical government level. Russia’s Yuri Ushakov, stated that the talks could be held in Abu Dhabi in mid Nov and would focus on discussing post – war security guarantees for both countries. Putin reportedly offered Witkoff assistance and support in ending the US – Iran war, claiming that Russia had a longstanding partnership with Iran it could leverage to bring both sides closer to a diplomatic resolution. Deepening economic ties were also discussed at the meeting, where investment projects which were already underway would be expedited. The prospect of trilateral talks arrives on the precipice of American material and political pressure on Ukraine and the possibility of a leaders summit between Trump, Putin and Xi in Nov. Witkoff previously met with Zelenskyy and other European leaders in Oslo where the latest criticism from President Trump as well as restrictions on intelligence sharing were discussed. Zelenskyy agreed on restarting the trilateral talks and outlined other proposals for resolving the war. Russia continued targeting Ukrainian cities overnight with drones and missiles, killing three in Kyiv, 11 in Kharkiv and other cities.
Impact: The trilateral technical negotiations are highly likely to happen by the end of Nov but are unlikely to materialize into any significant diplomatic progress since the negotiations were previously stalled for months and there were no developments on the diplomatic track of the war. The US has highly likely conditioned its support for Ukraine through recent intelligence sharing restrictions and political criticism in order to transactionally achieve the most recent diplomatic process. The highly transactional nature of the statements after the Witkoff – Putin meeting likely indicate that the US are actively exploring Russia’s role in the US – Iran war. Potential meeting between Trump, Putin and Xi would likely result in a political grandstanding instead of any significant developments since Russia is likely to retain its maximalist demands for ending the war in the mid to long – term. Trump’s decision to lift certain sanctions on Russia and allow Putin to restate oil supplies on the global market would likely result in further decline in support for the Republican party in the upcoming mid – term elections.