Description: Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenskyy, stated that he received a verbal confirmation in his talks with US President Trump who said that the US would grant Ukraine the license to produce Patriot interceptors. A similar situation unfolded earlier this year, where Trump initially stated that Ukraine could have Patriot interceptors, however, he later backtracked his statement. In the case of granting the license, Ukraine would at least need a year to reach 5% of the necessary interceptor capacities and two years to be able to establish a self – sufficient defense ecosystem. Ukraine and Russia meanwhile continued exchanging attacks with 46 people injured and 15 others receiving treatment from a drone attack on Kyiv. The US also reportedly proposed another round of trilateral talks hosted by the UAE, which were confirmed by both Russia and Ukraine.
Impact: Trump’s statements on Ukraine receiving a license for the Patriot interceptors is highly likely a negotiating probing tactic and a US bargaining chip to force Russia even nominally back on the discussion table. The Patriot missiles are classified and a highly effective US military asset and the license for their autonomous production is unlikely to be divulged to a country in an active war, such as Ukraine, at least in the short – term. Allowing Ukraine access to the Patriot interceptors would also likely have to pass approvals by the US Congress, which are governing bodies where the Trump administration is currently losing power and influence. Russia has been defiant to recent US proposals for negotiations, however, their acknowledgement of a potential trilateral talks in the UAE likely indicates that Russia is at least nominally prepared to engage into new round of talks in the short to mid – term period.