Description: Ukraine launched one of the largest drone and missile attacks on Moscow since the start of the war on the eve of the last election day in Russia. Russia stated that at least 1,100 drones were intercepted in the Moscow region, predominantly targeting oil and gas facilities. The attacks targeted the Moscow Oil Refinery, which is one of the major energy facilities that supply the capital. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claimed that domestically produced Flamingo and Pelican missiles were also used in long – range attacks which are aimed at crippling Russia’s key financial supplies such as oil and gas. Russia retaliated by targeting Ukraine’s capital with drone swarms and long – range ballistic missiles, killing 2 civilians and wounding a dozen others. The attacks arrived a day after US President Donald Trump signed a new sanctions bill targeting Russia’s oil and gas economy as well as additional tariffs for countries that buy Russian oil and gas.
Impact: Ukraine and Russia are highly likely going to continue pivoting towards aerial strikes in the short to mid – term period, leveraging drone warfare and modern technology to achieve air dominance or cripple each other’s embattled economies. Russia’s elections are highly likely a wartime formality and an overt attempt by Putin’s United Russia party to fully consolidate its political dominance and stifle any potential dissent or anti – war opposition. Trump’s renewed sanctions push is likely arriving as a result of Russia’s continued defiance to negotiate and is likely additionally aimed at major importers of Russian oil such as China and India. The US is likely leveraging the sanctions mechanism to cripple China’s economic ascent in the mid to long – term and gain favorable trade and strategic concessions from India in the short to mid – term. With the absence of any diplomatic traction, both countries are likely to escalate aerial attacks in the short to mid – term, while Ukraine is likely expected to hold a slight tactical ground advantage in the short to mid – term. This advantage is likely due to Ukraine’s proven capability to execute long – range attacks on Russian energy facilities and the reinvigorated military support by the US in the form of a $2.3 billion defense shipments.