Description: The Ukrainian city of Oleshky experienced a ceasefire mediated by the First Lady of the US, Melania Trump for a second day. Ukrainian and Russian forces have ceased the fighting around the city and neighboring Kherson to allow humanitarian aid access to Oleshky. The city has been experiencing food and water shortages with more than 2 thousand citizens stuck between the frontlines on both sides of the Dnieper river. Finland and Norway’s leaders, Alexander Stubb and Jonas Gahr Store conducted a joint phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin discussing the latest developments in the war and conveying messages for deescalation. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, downplayed the effects of the phone call, claiming that both Finland and Norway had nothing new to offer in regard to the war and they were attempting to insert themselves into the negotiation process.
Impact: The temporary humanitarian ceasefire in Oleshky is unlikely to serve as a practical basis for introducing a frontline ceasefire, considering that both Ukraine and Russia remain divergent from military and political compromise. Stubb and Store’s call to Putin is likely a move aimed at removing Europe’s deadlocked position in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. Russia’s downplay of the phone call likely signals that no concessions or modifications would be made in the country’s position on ending the war. The humanitarian ceasefire is likely to be used as a basis for securing the trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the US in the UAE by mid Nov. As things stand, the trilateral meeting is unlikely to deliver any substantial progress on the diplomatic track of the war.