Description: Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked major power plants in four states controlled by the Sudanese military. Power outages were registered in Sennar, Al Qadarif, White Nile and Gezira states. Several countries, including the US and major European nations warned of a famine crisis in the country caused by the war and the ongoing drought caused by the Super El Nino weather phenomena. Both warring parties have resorted towards limited ground operations and leveraged drone warfare to gain tactical advantages on the battlefield. The US has accused both parties of committing either war crimes or genocide and doesn’t recognize either side as the legitimate ruling government of the country. The UK additionally sanctions over 15 commanders pertaining to both warring parties due to their involvement in genocidal acts and war crimes. SAF has maintained a sustained campaign of advances in the North Kordofan state, prompted by the massive exodus of RSF commanders who have defected to the SAF in recent months.
Impact: The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is highly likely to expand in all war affected regions as attacks, climate change and the lack of international aid support factor into the civil war. Drone warfare between the SAF and the RSF is likely to remain the primary tool of gaining tactical leverage supported by targeted ground operations in key operational flashpoints across the battlefronts. The SAF is highly likely the tactically advantageous side under the current power dynamics of the war and is likely to expand its counteroffensive onto Kordofan state while resisting incursions from the RSF – controlled White Nile. RSF’s defection issues are likely to continue and as a result the paramilitary force is likely to suffer battlefield losses in the short to mid – term. The lack of concrete diplomatic efforts likely points towards continuation of the war at least until the mid – term period.