Description: The city of Abu Zaeima located in the North Kordofan state was targeted by a drone strike that killed 11 people and injured a dozen more as drones are increasingly and ineffectively used against military targets in the civil war. Abu Zaeima is controlled by the RSF while the suspected drone attack was attributed to the SAF, which are vying for control in contested regions such as Kordofan and Blue Nile. The drone strike arrives only days after the SAF repelled a major attack by the RSF and the allied SPLM – N in Blue Nile state.
Impact: Fighting for control in Kordofan and Blue Nile states would likely escalate in the upcoming period as both warring parties enforce control over key resource rich areas. The SAF would likely benefit slightly more due to recent defections from RSF ranks while drone warfare is also likely to further increase, elevating civilian casualties and forcing people to internally displace or migrate. The RSF has recently received renewed supplies of weapons and vehicles from the UAE, which likely indicates preparations for a larger ground offensive supported by drones. The likeliest flashpoints for renewed armed confrontations are the entire Kordofan and Blue Nile State with drone strikes predominantly focused in Darfur state, where an ongoing tribal war creates further dissention into RSF’s ranks, and Kordofan.