Description: Intense fighting broke out between the Somalian army and regional forces loyal to the ousted local President of South West State, Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen. Urban fighting was reported throughout the day on 28 Sep with more than 69 people injured and three people dead from the violence. Laftagareen was ousted in Mar by the President of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who is accused by opposition forces of attempting to consolidate power in the country and remain in power indefinitely. The anti – government forces claimed that Somalia’s army was heavily supported by Turkish airpower as sorties of F – 16s and drones overflew Baidoa, bombing key sites. The most recent clashes between South West State forces and the Somalian military began in Aug, highlighting the level of internal instability where one of Al – Qaeda’s most influential branches, Al Shabab, is active.
Impact: The most recent clashes in Baidoa are likely to continue in the mid to long – term as Somalia grapples with instability from separatist forces in absence of political dialogue and extensive amount of foreign influence. Turkey as the major supporter of the government is likely to enhance its presence in the country through military and economic support. Separatist claims across the country’s five semi – autonomous regions are likely to persist on the basis of President Mahmud’s political illegitimacy and influence from regional actors such as Ethiopia and Egypt on Somalia’s coastland. Al Shabab is highly likely going to increase its operational footprint in the country, exploiting the internal instability to expand territorial control. Somalia’s internal instability likely adds to the degrading security landscape in the Horn of Africa where wars in Ethiopia and Sudan are already active, likely lifting the prospects for overlapping warfare in the mid – term period.