Description: UAE’s Vice – President, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan, met with Saudi crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman in Riyadh. Saudi Arabia officially invited the UAE’s Vice – President as they discussed the improvement of bilateral ties and ironing out their mutual partnership. The meeting arrives after Saudi Arabia unsuccessfully lobbied the US for assistance against the Houthis and recent meetings between military officials laid bare the limitations of the country’s defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan. Tensions between the two Gulf powers escalated over Yemen last year, when forces supported by the UAE, called the Southern Transitional Council (STC), were targeted by Saudi airstrikes.
Impact: Saudi Arabia in absence of direct military support is highly likely forced into a partnership of convenience with the UAE in the short – term, despite ongoing bilateral tensions and conflicting regional claims. The temporary strategic realignment is unlikely to bring about bilateral compromises on outstanding issues such as the war in Sudan and the ongoing competition for influence in the Horn of Africa. The UAE is highly likely advantageously positioned to exploit Saudi Arabia’s security crisis to demand concessions on several fronts, including the civil war in Sudan, competing claims in Somalia and Saudi Arabia’s ties with UAE rivals such as Egypt and Eritrea. The UAE is likely to heavily condition its potential support to Saudi Arabia regarding the crisis with the Houthis. The UAE is likely to reinstate its influence in Yemen either through remnants of the STC in the south or through direct support of Yemen’s government through Saudi channels of influence.