Description: Romania’s majority ruling party in parliament, the Social Democrats are reportedly discussing to form a coalition with the far – right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) to topple incumbent prime minister Ilie Bolojan. Previously, several ministers from the Social Democratic party resigned their posts in protest to the prime minister’s austerity measures and budget cuts. The move would threaten Romania’s access to EU’s covid recovery fund of 10 billion euros and retract reforms that the 10 – party pro-European coalition made within its two years of governance. George Simion, former presidential candidate and leader of AUR stated that a no – confidence motion would be filed when all 233 parliamentary representatives sign the initiative where AUR was open to coalescing with any other political party. AUR is currently favored in the polls enjoying 35% of public support ahead of any other political party.
Impact: The unlikely coalition between the Social Democrats and the AUR is likely to put additional pressure on prime minister Bolojan who is facing a no confidence vote. AUR and the Social Democrats still need to garner the necessary political capital to launch the no confidence initiative which likely positions both parties from divergent political backgrounds on a coalition path. Romania could likely face an abrupt political crisis in case internal dialogue between the various smaller parties does not prevail over the option to oust the sitting prime minister. Potential renewed political crisis could contract the country’s macroeconomic ambitions, halt the EU funds and backtrack the socio – economic reforms made by the pro – EU political coalition in the past two years.