Description: The Pakistani military stated that more than 28 TTP (Pakistani Taliban) militants were killed in overnight airstrikes on its border with Afghanistan. The Afghan Taliban government blamed the Pakistani military of indiscriminately targeting civilians claiming that at least three civilians were killed in the border regions. The UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) confirmed the deaths of the civilians while a Pakistani official claimed the strikes targeted TTP militants in the Paktika and Kunar provinces. Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the Afghan Taliban stated that Afghanistan would respond accordingly to the latest aggression from Pakistan. The attack follows the latest deadly string in Pakistan where separatist and terrorist killed more than 30 people in separate attacks on a police station in Kohat, and the district of Hangu near the border with Afghanistan.
Impact: Pakistan and Afghanistan are likely returning to a renewed period of cross – border aggression which is likely going to be comprised of limited ground operations in the border regions and continued exchange of aerial strikes. Separatist and terrorist attacks in Pakistan are likely going to continue and intensify in the short to mid – term, following the recent attacks which would likely prompt the Pakistani military to respond with cross border attacks into Afghanistan. This would likely subsequently force the Afghan Taliban to respond, and the situation is likely going to transpire into a renewed cross – border conflict. Considering Pakistan’s military dominance, the Afghan Taliban are likely going to pursue limited aerial attacks and low – scale cross – border incursions as the prospect of a wider confrontation is currently unlikely.