Description: North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, has announced that his country would drastically increase its nuclear capabilities as he toured the newest uranium enrichment site near Pyongyang. The IAEA estimates that so far, North Korea has developed up to 50 nuclear warheads and several uranium enrichment facilities located in and around Pyongyang, central Yongbyon and western Kangsong. North Korea in the interim has rejected any potential for reconciliation with South Korea and rejected diplomatic rapprochement from the US, courting Russia and China more intensively. Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit North Korea next week as both countries devise a deeper strategic partnership.
Impact: Uncontrolled expansion of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities likely raises China’s deterrent capabilities in the region as one of North Korea’s closest allies and significantly escalates the threat landscape in relation to South Korea. Kim Jong Un’s regime has rejected reconciliation efforts made by South Korea in recent months which likely indicates that North Korea is adamant on maintaining its wartime posturing in the long – term which in turn threatens the current status quo. North Korea would most likely further increase nuclear capabilities, modernize its military and reform its air forces, with Xi’s scheduled visit next week demonstrating a close strategic partnership between China and North Korea. Offensive military actions remain highly unlikely in the region since the increase of nuclear capabilities is likely a strategic manifestation of deterrence by North Korea.