Description: Members of the Al – Qaeda affiliated JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimeen) terrorist group killed more than 100 Malian soldiers in a coordinated attack on a military base in the city of Dioura in central Mali. The attack is the latest surge in violence after JNIM alongside the Tuareg rebels (FLA) launched coordinated attacks against the Malian military in Apr. An airport in the city of Sevare was also targeted where the number of casualties remained undisclosed. JNIM currently holds much of central Mali while the FLA is in control of several cities and regions in the northern parts of the country. The Malian military alongside Russian mercenaries from the Africa Corps are continuing to have difficulties in countering the terrorists and the separatists who are beginning to establish local government administrations in the towns under their control.
Impact: The conflict between JNIM, the FLA and the Malian military supported by the Africa Corps is highly likely transforming towards a sustained campaign of continued infighting. JNIM and FLA are likely controlling much of the central and northern parts of the country where they govern the population under local administrations. The Malian military supported by the mercenaries highly likely lacks both the tactical and strategic capacities to oppose coordinated offensives by JNIM and the FLA. No significant diplomatic developments have been reported in terms of peace or ceasefire talks, which highly likely signals that the conflict would continue in the mid to long – term, likely impacting neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso where separate and similar separatist and terrorist groups are active. The military junta in Mali is likely in a precarious position where its dependence on Russia is highly likely limiting its options to pursue other international strategic partnerships that could help in counteracting the internal conflict.